After a seemingly endless trail to these fraught US elections – which have featured more turbulence, twists and turns than a series of Game of Thrones – businessman Donald Trump has become the 45th President of the United States. Indeed, 2016 will go down in history as one of the most volatile financial years ever. With the uncertainty of Brexit dangling over their heads like the Sword of Damocles, hundreds of Britain-based SME’s are now facing the impact of “Trumponomics” on top of Brexit uncertainties.
As expected, the dollar immediately plummeted after Trump’s victory, and may be unstable for a while. The US economy may take time to settle before changes start to kick in. The main European markets ultimately ended the day up – as such the expected meltdown did not occur. Experts are saying that radical change is unlikely to happen immediately – which is good news for stock markets. How the US economy reacts over the next few years will be interesting to watch, however.
Trump’s victory speech certainly soothed some fraught nerves, and towards the end of the day many markets were calmer. The President Elect spoke of healing and uniting the nation, he offered his thanks to Hillary Clinton for her service and hard work over the years, and talked about global relations.
While a Trump presidency is likely to add to global economic uncertainty, analysts believe the impact on the UK economy will – at least in the short term – be limited. Capital Economics has left its forecasts for UK growth unchanged 1.5pc in 2017 and 2.5pc in 2018 following the US election result. Outside the EU, the USA is the UK’s biggest export market, with a fifth of UK goods and services sent to the world’s biggest economy, equivalent to 6pc of UK gross domestic product (GDP). But Jonathan Loynes, an economist at Capital Economics, argues that there are several reasons why a Trump presidency would not be as painful for the UK, as it might be for other European countries. He sights factors such as the plunge in the value of the pound following Brexit – ultimately helping the UK to regain it’s competitiveness; a weaker dollar against low yielding currencies could help the pound to “find a floor”, easing concerns about runaway inflation. He also added that the political consequences for the UK, due to our good relationship with the US, plus the bonus that the UK has already had its “revolution” against the establishment, as positive factors. Brexit inspired the Trump vote, while mainstream politicians in the euro-zone – especially France, Italy and Germany – will be looking on with considerable unease while populist parties take encouragement from the events that have unfolded in the US and teh UK.
Britain’s main stock index, the FTSE 100, recovered from it’s early-morning slump, gaining 0,7 percent, while Germany’s DAX was up 0.5 percent and France’s CAC-40 gained 0.5 percent. This pattern has echoed the reaction to the Brexit vote – only it happened much faster: complacency, surprise and panic followed by swift recovery. Maybe Trump will prove to be less controversial than he has promised? Let’s hope so.
Practically speaking, there is a bit of breathing space before all these policy changes would come into being. In a Brexit scenario, the process of leaving the EU will take two years before it is phased in. The US president is sworn into office in January 2017, after which policies that President Trump has mentioned in his campaign will need to be passed by the Senate – and his revolutionary policies may or may not be approved by the extremely conservative administration in place.
In terms of practical advice for businesses, it is crucial that they use this period to renegotiate, reassess and re-strategise to manage all foreign exchange risks. Many companies buying US dollars have already shortened the length of their forward contracts significantly, dropping these from an average of 90 working days per contract to less than 70 days, in anticipation of financial upheaval. Some 75 per cent of the earnings of the UK’s largest 100 companies come from overseas with many reporting their results in dollars. If we are faced with a situation where the pound becomes weaker, the knock-on effect may be felt down entire supply chains.
It is also on businesses to make sure that these supply chains are performing super-efficiently and cost effectively. It is a good idea to try and renegotiate future deals with one’s current suppliers, or in some cases, seek new suppliers who can offer the best possible deals.
It seems that UK business owners are relentlessly carrying on with business as usual. Given the difficult economic conditions in the recent past and the unpredictability of the future, business owners here have come to believe that with a combination of new technology available (i.e. access to effective ways to market their products online and many business tools) together with their own hard work, an innovative approach and good business management, there is every chance of succeeding in this economic climate. After all, small businesses are essential to the economy of the UK, and the government knows it. Trump is all about business, hence the world is all about business as never before.
One part of Britain that will have their eye firmly on developments in the USA is Wales. For 70 years the US has been Wales’s top investor, accounting for 40% of the foreign money invested in it, and therefore the ramifications of the Trump administration’s economic policy are of massive interest there. Around 275 US companies are employing 48,000 people operating in the region – a significant chunk of the economy. Welsh exports to the USA are around £2.7bn while imports from the US to Wales are valued at £0.6bn.
Theresa May’s diplomatic message to the President Elect was that Britain and the USA have had an enduring and special relationship based on the values of freedom, democracy and enterprise in the past. The USA has been a close ally of the UK, with British foreign policy being closely coordinated with the US. This special alliance has been strengthened by close cooperation through the World Wars, the Korean conflict, the Persian Gulf War, in Operation Iraqi Freedom, and in Afghanistan, and through trade agreements such as NATO. The two countries are in constant contact on foreign policy issues and global problems.
After Trump’s election result was confirmed, the UK government has made it clear that it is open to beginning a new trade relationship with the US. Keeping an eye on the business ball but adopting an optimistic outlook, wouldn’t it be excellent if trade relations with the US were favourably negotiated for Britain – offering new and favourable markets as an alternative, or an addition, to existing European markets after Brexit kicks in?
As long as businesses are prepared for the inevitable ups and downs ahead by having various risk mitigation plans, including buffers and insurance strategies for padding, there is a great chance that the effects of these upheavals can be minimised – even optimised.